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Today,
there are many different BlackJack
card counting systems. Typically, the more complex a system
is, the better your advantage should you master it. However,
the difference between card counting System X and System
Y is usually so small that ease of using the system becomes
more important than gaining an additional .15 % advantage
(or whatever it is). This discussion is restricted to a
single card counting system: the high/low (also called the
plus/minus) point count. This strategy is very easy to master.
Two other methods that I recommend if you're serious are
the Advanced Plus/Minus and the "Hi-Opt I" systems.
The former is similar to the high/low but assigns fractional
values to certain cards as opposed to integer values which
are easier to add in your head. The latter method is considered
one of the most powerful Black
Jack counting systems of all time.
The
quick and dirty reason why Black
Jack card counting works is this: The player
gains an advantage when a deck has a shortage of cards valued
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. When a deck has a shortage of cards
valued 9, 10, Ace; the player has a disadvantage. If you
can tell when the deck is rich in 9's, 10's, and Aces you
can do one of the following things:
When you playing Black
Jack, bet more money when the deck is favorable
to you.
Alter your Black
Jack Basic Strategy play to account for the
favorability, thereby increasing the odds of winning a particular
hand.
Now lets discuss the +/- Point Count. As you can see from
the small chart below, a plus value is given to low cards,
and a minus value is given to high cards. Notice that 7,
8, and 9 have a value of zero. This is because their overall
effect is negligible as compared to the others. Some systems
use a value of -2 for the Ace instead of -1 and give a value
of +1 to the seven instead of zero.
PLUS
(+1) MINUS (-1)
2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1
As
you may notice, this is a Black
Jack balanced system. There are 20 cards in
a deck that are valued +1: two through six. There are 16
ten value cards and 4 Aces in a deck (20 total) that are
valued -1. The remaining 12 cards (7, 8, 9) have a value
of zero. At the end of a deck the count should be zero.
A good drill to practice is to get a deck of cards, turn
them over one by one, and keep track of the count. If you
enter a Black
Jack game mid-way between the deck or shoe,
flat bet until the cards are shuffled. Once the cards are
shuffled commence counting from zero.
A
quick example using ten cards: the following cards are shown
in the course of a hand: A, 4, 7, 10, 10, 9, 10, 2, 10,
5. The first value is -1 (the Ace) & the second is +1
(the 4) = 0 (the current total hand count). The next card
is the 7 which is zero so disregard it. The next card is
a ten so the total count is now -1. The next card is another
ten, giving a total count of -2. The next card is a nine
which has a value of zero so ignore it, total count is still
at -2. Next is a ten, total count is at -3. Next is a two
which adds +1 to the minus three yielding a total of -2.
A quick look at the next two cards shows that the two will
cancel each other out (-1+1=0). So at the end of a hand
of ten cards dealt to 2 players and the dealer, the point
count is minus two. This provides you with the knowledge
that your are at a slight disadvantage. Your next bet should
either be the same or a unit or two lower.
From
this example you see that it would be easier to count cards
if you play in a "cards-up" game. That way you
can see all the cards as they are dealt and count them as
they go by. When the dealer deals fast, just count every
two cards. You still count each card but you only add to
your total count after every two cards since many times
the two values will cancel each other out to give a net
value of zero, which doesn't need to be added to your total.
If you play in a cards-down game, you may want to consider
playing at third base. The reason being is that in a cards-down
game you only see the other players' cards:
if
you peek at their hand (not polite but it's not cheating
like in poker)
if a player busts
when the dealer settles each players' hand.
When there are other people at a table, all this happens
rather quickly and you may miss a few cards here and there,
which essentially invalidates your count. You can't control
how fast the dealer deals, but you can slow things down
when the dealer prompts you for a play decision.
For
one deck, alter your wager according to the following table:
Bet
Units +/- Running Counts
1
2
3
4
5 +1 or less
+2 or +3
+4 or +5
+6 or +7
+8 or more
Example:
After the first hand of a one deck game, the point count
is plus four and you just bet a $5.00 chip. Before the next
hand is dealt, wager $15.00 (three units of $5.00) as the
above table mandates.
What
if there are four, six, or more decks instead of just one?
I recommend that you perform a "true-count" rather
than trying to remember different betting strategies for
different number of deck games. By doing a true count, the
above table can still be used.
The
True Count is found with the equation below. I provide an
example along with it for the case of having a running count
of +9 with one and a half decks left unplayed. It doesn't
matter how many decks are used, you just have to have a
good eye at guesstimating the number of decks that are left
in the shoe. I just measured the thickness of a deck of
cards to be 5/8 (10/16) of an inch. Hence the thickness
of a half deck is 5/16 of an inch. One and a half decks
would be 10/16 + 10/16 + 5/16 = 25/16 or a little over an
inch and a half. You probably see a relationship here. The
number of decks is approximately equal to the height of
the cards in inches.
Looking
at the table of betting units above, the proper wager would
be four units.
If
you have trouble keeping the count straight in your head,
you can use your chips as a memory storage device. After
every hand tally up the net count and update the running
or true count by rearranging your chips.
One
last thing. There is no a Black
Jack law or rule that says a dealer cannot
count cards. A dealer may count cards because he or she
is bored but more likely is that the casino may encourage
counting. The reason being that if the deck is favorable
to the player, the house can know this and "shuffle
up". This is also called preferential shuffling (a
game control measure) and it vaporizes your advantage.
Shuffle
Tracking
This is a fairly new technique on black
jack that has not been publicized very much.
The best definition I have seen is this one: "'Shuffle-tracking'
is the science of following specific cards through the shuffling
process for the purpose of either keeping them in play or
cutting them out of play." The concept of Black
Jack Shuffle tracking appears to have resulted
from bored mathematician's research and computer simulation
of shuffling cards.
Of
course, just because someone shuffles a deck (or decks)
of cards does not mean that the cards are "randomized".
The methods mentioned in the two previous sections (Basic
Strategy and Card Counting) assume a random order of cards.
(According to some authors, a single deck of cards must
be shuffled twenty to thirty times to ensure a truly random
dispersion. If a Casino is using a 6 deck shoe, that's 120
to 180 shuffles!) As in the Card Counting section, I am
going to restrict the discussion to the basics of shuffle
tracking as the combination of references listed at the
end of this section provide a complete discourse of the
topic.
A
beneficial (to the player) shuffle for a one deck game is
executed by dividing the deck equally into 26 cards and
shuffling them together a minimum of three times. This allows
the cards to be sufficiently intermixed to yield a fairly
random distribution. An adverse shuffle prevents the cards
from mixing completely.
The
simplest example is the Black
Jack Unbalanced Shuffle. As its name implies,
the dealer breaks the deck into two unequal stacks. As an
example, let's say you are playing two hands head on with
the dealer and the last 10 cards in the deck are dealt.
The result of the hand was that both your hands lost to
the dealer primarily due to the high percentage of low value
cards in the clump. Note that if you were counting, you
would have bet a single unit since the deck was unfavorable.
The dealer is now ready to shuffle the deck, and separates
the deck into 31 cards in one stack and 21 in the other
stack. The dealer shuffles the two stacks. If the shuffle
is done from the bottom of each stack on up, the top ten
cards of the larger stack will remain intact without mixing
with any of the other cards. Those ten cards can remain
in the order they were just dealt throughout the shuffle
if the process of bottom to top shuffling is not altered.
You are now asked to cut the deck. If you don't cut the
deck, the 10 cards that were dealt last hand will be dealt
as your first two hands. The result will be the same as
your last and you will lose the two hands. However, if you
cut the deck exactly at the end of those ten cards, you
have just altered the future to your benefit. Those cards
will now be placed at the bottom of the deck. Should the
dealer shuffle up early, you will avoid them altogether.
In addition, if you were keeping count, you would know that
the deck was favorable during the first 3-4 hands since
there would be an abundance of tens in the portion of the
deck that will be played. You would accordingly increase
you bet size to maximize your Black
Jack winnings.
On
the Black
Jack Some dealers will unknowingly split the
deck into unequal stacks. However, more often than not,
they are required to split the deck into unequal stacks.
If they are required to do this, they are performing the
House Shuffle. The casino has trained the dealer to shuffle
a particular way... on purpose! Why? In the long run, the
house will benefit from this because most players will not
cut any bad clumps out of play. If you have played Black
Jack in a casino, how much did you pay attention
to the way they shuffled? Like most people you were probably
oblivious to it.
There
are a number of shuffle methods, some of which have been
labeled as: the "Zone Shuffle", the "Strip
Shuffle", and the "Stutter Shuffle". The
Zone Shuffle is particular to shoe games (multiple deck
games) and is probably one of the most common shuffle methods.
It is accomplished by splitting the shoe into 4 to 8 piles
depending on the number of decks in the shoe. Prescribed
picks from each pile are made in a very exact way with intermittent
shuffles of each pair of half deck sized stacks. The net
effect is a simple regrouping of the cards pretty much in
the same region of the shoe as they were before, thereby
preventing clumps of cards from being randomly mixed. If
the dealer won 40 hands and you won 20, this trend is likely
to continue until you are broke or until the unfavorable
bias is removed through many shuffles.
What
if the players are winning the 40 black
jack hands and the dealer only 20? If the dealer
has been mentally keeping track of how many hands each side
has won in the shoe, the dealer will probably do one of
two things. One is to keep the shuffle the same, but 'strip'
the deck. When a dealer strips a deck, he/she strips off
one card at a time from the shoe letting them fall on top
of one another onto the table. This action causes the order
of the cards to be reversed. The main consequence is to
dissipate any clumping advantages (a bunch of tens in a
clump) that the players may have. The second thing the dealer
may do is simply change the way they shuffle to help randomize
the cards.
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